Statistics Profile

Eric Chang

1976

Orange County International Fencers Club Yale University Fencing NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2305	1692 - 2917	1879	2305
Foil	Direct elimination	1502	336 - 2667	1502	2079
Saber	Pool	2323	1869 - 2776	1884	2323
Saber	Direct elimination	2023	1076 - 2969	2023	2346

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.