Statistics Profile

Jacob Schultz

2002

University of South Florida Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1917	1557 - 2276	1917	2144
Épée	Direct elimination	2171	1514 - 2827	2171	2357
Foil	Pool	1702	861 - 2542	1702	1702
Foil	Direct elimination	2194	1119 - 3268	2194	2194

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.