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Statistics Profile

J. Kyle Kistner

2002
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Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 2124 1664 - 2583 2124 2124
Épée Direct elimination 1959 1050 - 2867 1959 1959
Foil Pool 1693 1067 - 2318 1693 1722
Foil Direct elimination 1749 529 - 2968 1749 1749
Saber Pool 1288 665 - 1910 1288 1558
Saber Direct elimination 2640 1438 - 3841 2640 2640

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.