Statistics Profile

Yizhe Liu (Andy)

1998

Carnegie Mellon University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	3172	2126 - 4217	3172	3172
Foil	Direct elimination	1779	481 - 3076	1779	1779
Saber	Pool	2149	1923 - 2374	1614	2202
Saber	Direct elimination	2085	1652 - 2517	1553	2227

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.