Statistics Profile

Alex Wolfe

2008

Fencers Club Inc.

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2619	2444 - 2793	1766	2739
Épée	Direct elimination	3028	2858 - 3197	2106	3049
Saber	Pool	1406	970 - 1841	1406	1477
Saber	Direct elimination	1526	516 - 2535	1526	1959

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.