Statistics Profile

Johnathan Ray

2003

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2215	1819 - 2610	2054	2253
Épée	Direct elimination	3184	2351 - 4016	2719	3184
Foil	Pool	2681	2332 - 3029	2490	2681
Foil	Direct elimination	2462	1687 - 3236	2418	2480

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.