Statistics Profile

Jonathan Chen

2008

Advance Fencing And Fitness Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Direct elimination	2921	1482 - 4359	2921	2921
Saber	Pool	2225	2057 - 2392	2037	2644
Saber	Direct elimination	2512	2344 - 2679	1679	2579

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.