Statistics Profile

Matthew Baird

2002

Buccaneer Blades Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1973	1622 - 2323	1334	1973
Épée	Direct elimination	2594	2050 - 3137	1615	2594
Foil	Pool	1599	506 - 2691	1599	1599
Foil	Direct elimination	2105	767 - 3442	2105	2105

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.