Statistics Profile

Jonathan Falcon

1998

Brazosport Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2160	1406 - 2913	2160	2160
Épée	Direct elimination	2778	1915 - 3640	2778	2778
Foil	Pool	1783	976 - 2589	1783	1783
Foil	Direct elimination	1696	501 - 2890	1696	1696

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.