Statistics Profile

Marcus Wu

2006

Carnegie Mellon University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2279	2109 - 2448	1634	2490
Épée	Direct elimination	2369	2183 - 2554	2030	2496
Foil	Pool	1696	879 - 2512	1696	1696
Foil	Direct elimination	1660	467 - 2852	1660	1660

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.