Statistics Profile

Andrew Chen

2005

Premier Fencing Alliance

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1581	1223 - 1938	1423	2156
Épée	Direct elimination	1640	937 - 2342	1460	1803
Foil	Pool	1402	1024 - 1779	1402	1690
Foil	Direct elimination	1799	1086 - 2511	1471	1799
Saber	Pool	2304	2108 - 2499	2197	3346
Saber	Direct elimination	2342	2063 - 2620	1540	2490

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.