Statistics Profile

Ryan Marks

2004

Avant Garde Fencers Club, Inc (CA) (AGFC)

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1796	1038 - 2553	1796	1796
Épée	Direct elimination	2079	640 - 3517	2079	2079
Foil	Pool	1490	934 - 2045	1490	1532
Foil	Direct elimination	2302	1413 - 3190	2302	2615
Saber	Pool	1572	1063 - 2080	1572	2128
Saber	Direct elimination	1740	898 - 2581	1740	2014

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.