Statistics Profile

Nathan Li

2007

Bay Regional Fencing Alliance

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1603	713 - 2492	1603	1603
Foil	Pool	2449	1679 - 3218	2449	2449
Foil	Direct elimination	2400	1246 - 3553	2400	2400
Saber	Pool	1593	993 - 2192	1590	1593
Saber	Direct elimination	2277	1155 - 3398	2277	2277

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.