Statistics Profile

Matthew de la Paz

1998

Washington University. St. Louis

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1917	930 - 2903	1917	1917
Épée	Direct elimination	2656	1567 - 3744	2656	2656
Saber	Pool	3343	2245 - 4440	3343	3343
Saber	Direct elimination	2402	1318 - 3485	2402	2402

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.