Statistics Profile

Timothy McCaffrey

1999

Enfield Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	733	0 - 1630	733	733
Foil	Direct elimination	1847	574 - 3119	1847	1847
Saber	Pool	1560	1369 - 1750	1515	2088
Saber	Direct elimination	1986	1682 - 2289	1686	2125

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.