Statistics Profile

Chase Fortuna

2008

Western Reserve Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1608	1415 - 1800	1525	1789
Épée	Direct elimination	1917	1608 - 2225	1865	2734
Foil	Pool	1339	971 - 1706	963	1346
Foil	Direct elimination	1575	1001 - 2148	1575	2031

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.