Statistics Profile

Chase Fortuna

2008

Western Reserve Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1574	1390 - 1757	1525	1789
Épée	Direct elimination	1889	1604 - 2173	1865	2734
Foil	Pool	1258	906 - 1609	963	1346
Foil	Direct elimination	1645	1100 - 2189	1575	2031

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.