Statistics Profile

Jonathon Shaber

1998

The Fencing Club Of The University Of Idaho

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2392	1966 - 2817	1900	2781
Épée	Direct elimination	2001	1301 - 2700	1477	2001
Foil	Pool	1418	746 - 2089	1418	1418
Foil	Direct elimination	3272	2016 - 4527	3272	3272

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.