Statistics Profile

Darren Liu

2003

Olympic Fencers Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2704	2388 - 3019	2657	2949
Épée	Direct elimination	3077	2586 - 3567	2993	3260
Foil	Pool	1566	1056 - 2075	1566	1855
Foil	Direct elimination	1898	1235 - 2560	1878	1956

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.