Statistics Profile

Norah Seigel

2006

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2726	2540 - 2911	2346	2860
Foil	Direct elimination	2927	2693 - 3160	1901	2945
Saber	Pool	1312	612 - 2011	1312	1312
Saber	Direct elimination	1759	548 - 2969	1759	1759

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.