Statistics Profile

Kevin Lu

2010

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1677	491 - 2862	1677	1677
Épée	Direct elimination	1899	649 - 3148	1899	1899
Foil	Pool	2500	2329 - 2670	1484	2518
Foil	Direct elimination	2489	2319 - 2658	1853	2548

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.