Statistics Profile

Joseph Olson

2010

Austin Fencers Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1433	1267 - 1598	1278	1723
Épée	Direct elimination	1589	1413 - 1764	1573	2478
Foil	Pool	930	222 - 1637	930	1255
Foil	Direct elimination	1952	960 - 2943	1724	1952

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.