Statistics Profile

Eli Lippman

2003

University Of North Carolina/Chapel Hill NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2934	2751 - 3116	2641	3031
Épée	Direct elimination	3526	3270 - 3781	2455	3526
Saber	Pool	1926	1429 - 2422	1926	2025
Saber	Direct elimination	2539	1459 - 3618	2539	2539

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.