Statistics Profile

Mason Elkin

2008

Rogue Fencers Guild

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1539	953 - 2124	1171	1539
Épée	Direct elimination	1991	959 - 3022	1991	1991
Foil	Pool	2420	1311 - 3528	2420	2420

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.