Statistics Profile

Greg Davis

1978

Northern Colorado Fencers

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1396	1056 - 1735	1069	1518
Épée	Direct elimination	1103	299 - 1906	1103	1688
Foil	Pool	1296	916 - 1675	1047	1526
Foil	Direct elimination	1275	263 - 2286	1275	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.