Statistics Profile

Hyrum Thomson

2008

Wasatch Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2440	1889 - 2990	2440	2873
Épée	Direct elimination	3185	2396 - 3973	2998	3392
Foil	Pool	1966	1693 - 2238	1715	3355
Foil	Direct elimination	2175	1759 - 2590	1289	2314
Saber	Pool	1959	1501 - 2416	1443	1976
Saber	Direct elimination	2751	1984 - 3517	2512	2751

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.