Rachel Lewis - FencingTracker

Rocky Mountain Fencing Academy / Denver Fencing Center

Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	DE	2076	1889 - 2262	1556	2076
Épée	Pool	2067	1901 - 2232	1792	2225
Saber	DE	2105	775 - 3434	2105	2105
Saber	Pool	2237	835 - 3638	2237	2237
Foil	DE	1899	1050 - 2747	1899	2264
Foil	Pool	1834	1195 - 2472	1533	1993

^* We're quite confident that the person's true strength is somewhere between those numbers. For those statistically inclined, it is a 95% confidence interval of the estimate (i.e., μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

Outcome	Chance	My strength change	Their strength change
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Strength over time

The strength changes are summaries from all events of that day. The dotted line indicates that the strength rating is too uncertain.

Explanation

The strength number is a numeric representation of how a fencer has performed against others historically.

The system "learns" your strength as you fence. It takes about 12 bouts for it to zero in on a good estimate. This is why in the beginning you will often see wild fluctuations.

An unknown fencer starts with a 2500 strength, but with very high uncertainty.

Due to their different natures, pools, direct elimination, and mixed gender bouts are tracked separately.

The lowest possible is zero, average is around 2500, highest possible is around 5000. The scale is not linear, which means that higher numbers are increasingly harder to obtain. To be precise, the distribution of strength numbers looks like a bell curve.

If you beat a much stronger fencer, your strength will go up by a lot. If you beat a much weaker fencer, your strength will go up by little or maybe even not at all. Losses follow the same logic. You can see detailed changes after each bout in the bout history.

Probability of winning doesn't account for difference in fencing styles, familiarity with opponents, or any of such things. It is a reflection of the difference in strength estimates assuming that both of you perform just like you did against others in the past.