Statistics Profile

Elliot Lucas

2010

Tim Morehouse Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	851	149 - 1552	851	851
Foil	Direct elimination	1903	654 - 3151	1903	1903
Saber	Pool	1787	1425 - 2148	1033	1787
Saber	Direct elimination	2771	2192 - 3349	1783	2771

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.