Statistics Profile

Aaron Herscovici

2005

Fencing Club at Indiana University

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1955	1659 - 2250	1912	2561
Épée	Direct elimination	2303	1885 - 2720	2169	2444
Foil	Pool	2152	1256 - 3047	2152	2152

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.