Statistics Profile

Matthias Moylan

1995

Hawaii Island Fencing Assoc.

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1874	1289 - 2458	1874	2979
Épée	Direct elimination	1915	902 - 2927	1915	2079
Foil	Pool	1537	992 - 2081	1537	1537

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.