Statistics Profile

Paulina Morales

2008

San Diego Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1743	1573 - 1912	1540	1965
Foil	Direct elimination	1800	1573 - 2026	1280	1872
Saber	Pool	1429	839 - 2018	1429	1429
Saber	Direct elimination	1817	595 - 3038	1817	1817

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.