Statistics Profile

Eric Xie

2008

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1337	802 - 1871	1337	1698
Foil	Direct elimination	1832	532 - 3131	1832	2079
Saber	Pool	2329	1371 - 3286	2329	2329
Saber	Direct elimination	1878	627 - 3128	1878	1878

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.