Statistics Profile

Matthew Kearney

1982

Pittsburgh Fencers Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2078	1361 - 2794	2078	2078
Épée	Direct elimination	2493	1518 - 3467	2493	2493
Foil	Pool	1358	787 - 1928	1358	1614
Foil	Direct elimination	1690	539 - 2840	1690	1901

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.