Statistics Profile

Sigurdur Ragan Steinsson

2004

Central Pennsylvania Fencing Association

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1212	414 - 2009	1212	1212
Foil	Direct elimination	2243	836 - 3649	2243	2243
Saber	Pool	1368	1115 - 1620	1079	1603
Saber	Direct elimination	1181	568 - 1793	1181	2235

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.