Statistics Profile

Lucy Hanlon

2007

Nittany Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1725	1489 - 1960	1178	1725
Foil	Direct elimination	1916	1514 - 2317	1615	2447
Saber	Pool	1607	1434 - 1779	1449	1795
Saber	Direct elimination	1851	1578 - 2123	1682	2213

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.