Statistics Profile

Lucas Tseng

2011

AIC Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1089	447 - 1730	1089	1089
Épée	Direct elimination	2037	650 - 3423	2037	2037
Foil	Pool	1289	1119 - 1458	674	1296
Foil	Direct elimination	1466	1249 - 1682	1159	1857

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.