Statistics Profile

aubrey branch

2002

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1104	215 - 1992	1104	1104
Épée	Direct elimination	1993	626 - 3359	1993	1993
Foil	Pool	1172	395 - 1948	1172	1172
Foil	Direct elimination	2174	808 - 3539	2174	2174

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.