Statistics Profile

Ethan Vick

2012

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1129	951 - 1306	766	1179
Épée	Direct elimination	1501	1217 - 1784	1462	2122
Saber	Pool	819	517 - 1120	793	1302
Saber	Direct elimination	1094	444 - 1743	1094	1586

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.