Statistics Profile

Daniel Lai

2003

RedStar Fencing Club Chicago

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Direct elimination	2204	1088 - 3319	2204	2204
Saber	Pool	2387	2187 - 2586	1604	2469
Saber	Direct elimination	2667	2372 - 2961	1896	2716

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.