Statistics Profile

Michael Blackledge

2000

Cyranos Place

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2459	1797 - 3120	2459	2459
Épée	Direct elimination	1734	541 - 2926	1734	1734
Foil	Pool	1621	1394 - 1847	1350	1956
Foil	Direct elimination	1726	1296 - 2155	1399	1956

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.