Statistics Profile

Sarah Shen

2001

University Of California San Diego NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1691	1084 - 2297	1691	1691
Épée	Direct elimination	1545	307 - 2782	1545	1545
Saber	Pool	2751	2410 - 3091	2505	2931
Saber	Direct elimination	3046	2438 - 3653	2031	3146

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.