Statistics Profile

Aidan Fitzgerald

2003

Northwest Indiana Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2139	1768 - 2509	1817	2139
Épée	Direct elimination	2043	1498 - 2587	1931	2511
Foil	Pool	1116	334 - 1897	1116	1316
Foil	Direct elimination	1728	472 - 2983	1728	2079
Saber	Pool	1476	887 - 2064	1476	1476
Saber	Direct elimination	1776	882 - 2669	1776	1776

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.