Statistics Profile

Teagan McNally

2004

Pennsylvania State University NCAA Midwest Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1791	1485 - 2096	1138	1846
Foil	Direct elimination	2168	1710 - 2625	1994	2297
Saber	Pool	1754	1512 - 1995	1667	2176
Saber	Direct elimination	2076	1620 - 2531	2076	2499

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.