Statistics Profile

Esteban Morales

2008

Battle Born Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1510	988 - 2031	1510	1591
Épée	Direct elimination	2057	1187 - 2926	1988	2057
Saber	Pool	1333	638 - 2027	1333	1459
Saber	Direct elimination	2408	1576 - 3239	2408	2587

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.