Statistics Profile

Michael Grigoriev

2012

Tim Morehouse Fencing Club (Port Chester)

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1700	1530 - 1869	1278	1902
Foil	Direct elimination	1963	1792 - 2133	1533	2133
Saber	Pool	1561	764 - 2357	1561	1561
Saber	Direct elimination	2216	1191 - 3240	2216	2216

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.