Statistics Profile

Trace Christensen

2006

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	994	221 - 1766	994	994
Foil	Direct elimination	1844	596 - 3091	1844	1844
Saber	Pool	1052	250 - 1853	1052	1818
Saber	Direct elimination	1708	621 - 2794	1708	1946

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.