Statistics Profile

Elsha Morrow

2008
Research Triangle Fencing

Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Foil Pool 990 299 - 1680 990 990
Foil Direct elimination 1740 533 - 2946 1740 1740
Saber Pool 1079 785 - 1372 1011 1670
Saber Direct elimination 1332 736 - 1927 1332 2114

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

Log in to compare your projected matchup, or create an account with your USFA number to enable it.

Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.