Statistics Profile

Gideon Hogan

2004

Valkyrie Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1375	792 - 1957	1375	1565
Épée	Direct elimination	1997	777 - 3216	1997	2090
Foil	Pool	1461	1093 - 1828	1461	1918
Foil	Direct elimination	1942	1164 - 2719	1497	2096

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.