Statistics Profile

Daniel Novojilov

2009

Medeo Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1254	1083 - 1424	1232	1613
Épée	Direct elimination	1351	1079 - 1622	1131	1811
Saber	Pool	885	612 - 1157	787	1704
Saber	Direct elimination	917	337 - 1496	917	1731

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.