Statistics Profile

Christopher McNally

1997

University of Texas Dallas

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1685	869 - 2500	1685	1685
Épée	Direct elimination	2468	1346 - 3589	2468	2468
Foil	Pool	1897	1344 - 2449	1568	1897
Foil	Direct elimination	1988	780 - 3195	1988	2101
Saber	Pool	1587	797 - 2376	1587	1587
Saber	Direct elimination	2005	712 - 3297	2005	2005

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.