Statistics Profile

Ryan Zhang

2006

North Shore Fencers Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1701	1301 - 2100	1677	1881
Épée	Direct elimination	1504	535 - 2472	1504	2131
Saber	Pool	2157	1447 - 2866	2157	2157
Saber	Direct elimination	1381	221 - 2540	1381	1381

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.